As we get nearer to the one-quarter mark of the twenty first century, it might appear that issues are altering sooner than ever earlier than, particularly within the areas of tradition and media. I take care of music for a residing and even I can’t sustain with every part that’s occurring. However I feel I can see issues clearly sufficient to make some predictions and observations for music in 2024.
1. Music will grow to be much more fragmented
Within the olden days, we acquired all our music in measured doses by document labels, radio, music magazines, document shops and video channels. Right this moment, every part ever recorded is obtainable to us on a regular basis. There’s nobody place — just like the radio or MuchMusic — the place all of us go to listen to/see the artists that everybody is speaking about. Consensus on what’s “good” and who’s “massive” has utterly damaged down. There’s no centre to music anymore. Except for a couple of acts, “massive” has by no means been smaller.
Few acts unite us as they as soon as did. There was a time once we all ran to the document retailer to get that one album everybody was speaking about. We handed over chilly, laborious money, making a monetary funding within the artist. Right this moment, there’s a lot music to select from for zero money structure. We spend all our time idly hitting the “skip” button. We’re all overwhelmed. Music has grow to be devalued. Right this moment’s stars are smaller than these from days of yore.
By the use of proof, American radio chart analyst Man Zapoleon identified that 2023 had fewer “consensus hits” — songs that have been featured on not less than 50 per cent of America’s prime 40 stations — than any earlier 12 months. What number of? Simply 18, down from 28 in 2020.
In the meantime, there appears to be a rising disenchantment with present music. About 75 per cent of all music consumed as we speak is older than two years. That’s not going to vary.
2. The algorithms will proceed to distort music
Suggestion algorithms was once important for working our manner by means of music discovery. Now, although, they appear to be pushing us to issues which can be simply monetized as a substitute of fulfilling our wants. In the event you really feel that you just’re being served up materials that you just don’t care about, you’re not alone.
In the meantime, bot farms, faux streams, poor enforcement/moderation and AI clones are simply going to make issues much more complicated and irritating.
3. TikTok might be much more of a game-changer in 2024
TikTok has been one of many world’s hottest apps for a few years now. The corporate realizes that continued development will rely on deeper integration of licensed music into the platform. As soon as it has TikTok Music, its streaming service, up and operating in additional nations, look ahead to some seismic modifications in how the trade reacts.
4. Music streamers should consolidate — ultimately
I’ve been untimely with this prediction earlier than, however it’s acquired to occur someday. Proper now, there are too many platforms chasing subscribers for a quickly maturing enterprise mannequin. Why did Spotify CEO Daniel Ek announce main layoffs simply earlier than Christmas? As a result of he and his board see tough occasions forward. Spotify goes into lean-and-mean mode. In the meantime, all streamers stay hamstrung by the licensing offers below which they have to work. As quickly as extra money is available in, extra money goes out in lockstep. There’s no alternative for efficiencies and synergies that may enhance margins.
Spotify has a market cap of just about US$40 billion and has the reserves to proceed to play the lengthy sport. Apple Music will survive, due to the truth that the father or mother firm is value over US$3 trillion. Something Alphabet does (YouTube, YouTube Music) can be secure. Amazon Music has Jeff Bezos. However what about Tidal, Qobuz, Deezer, Napster and everybody else? How lengthy can they keep impartial?
5. The language of well-liked music will proceed to evolve
It was once that should you wished a world hit, you needed to sing in English. Not anymore. Because of the widespread availability of low cost streaming music, songs are free to circulate anyplace they need. Latin music has exploded. Okay-pop is in every single place. It’s solely a matter of time earlier than we see world hits rising from India, China and Africa.
6. The AI-and-music panic will subside
Proper now, everybody sees AI as a menace to humanity in music. However we’ve seen this film earlier than with the rise of synthesizers (“They’re killing jobs for musicians!”), drum machines (“Human drummers will grow to be extinct!”) and sampling (“All music will find yourself simply being recycled bits!”). It’ll take a couple of extra years to type out all of the legalities and ethics of this new expertise, however we’ll quickly marvel how all of us did with out AI. Identical to we did with synths, drum machines and sampling.
7. We’ll lose extra beloved musicians
With so a lot of our legends of their 70s and 80s, it’s only a matter of time. Put together your self.
8. We’ll lastly have music that sounds nearly as good as what we had within the ’70s
A few generations have grown up on the inferior audio high quality of MP3s and their ilk. Handy and moveable, sure. Good-sounding audio? No. However with the rise of recent tech (Dolby ATMOS, Sony 360, Apple Spatial Audio, Hello-Res Audio) we’re approaching an period the place music won’t solely sound higher than MP3s and different compressed codecs however higher than CDs. A number of issues nonetheless have to be labored out (correct decoding {hardware} on telephones, extra bandwidth to permit for wi-fi listening), however we’ve turned a nook on the subject of getting again to correct high-fidelity music.
9. We could lastly say sufficient is sufficient to excessive ticket costs
Acts have been pushing laborious to see how a lot followers are keen to pay to see a present. To this point, although, followers haven’t reached the breaking level. Funflation — the thought of spending increasingly more cash on enjoyable issues as a result of the world appears so loopy that going to a gig is a method of dealing with one existential disaster after one other — can’t go on indefinitely. As soon as artists and promoters begin seeing rows and rows of empty seats, they’ll know that we’ve reached our restrict.
10. The Taylor Swift/Travis Kelce factor will finish badly
Discuss a advertising powerhouse. Kelce was already a star when he crossed paths with Tay-Tay, so when their relationship grew to become public, they grew to become a Richard Burton-Liz Taylor-style phenomenon.
Their tryst has been a win-win for everybody, together with the NFL, which has seen scores in sure demos skyrocket. A large portion of the inhabitants is invested within the couple, however for the story to be full, it has to finish with a tragic breakup. Multiple individual has written that if the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs tank down the stretch and into the playoffs, Swift will probably be made right into a scapegoat by Chiefs followers for inflicting such a distraction. I’ve already seen her known as “Yoko” numerous occasions. However simply consider the songs she’s going to get out of it!
Which will find yourself being the beginning of the Tay-Tay backlash. You may’t grow to be as ubiquitous as Taylor Swift is now without end. Sooner or later, folks will start to tire of listening to and studying about her daily. It received’t be the top of her, nevertheless. She’s confirmed far too savvy on the subject of managing her profession and she or he’ll survive any downturn. However Taylormania as we all know it proper now will subside. That’ll be a pleasant break.
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Alan Cross is a broadcaster with Q107 and 102.1 the Edge and a commentator for International Information.
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