PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by Scott Feinberg, The Hollywood Reporter’s government editor of awards protection, displays Scott’s greatest try and predict the habits of the Academy of Movement Image Arts and Sciences, not his private preferences. He arrives at these projections by drawing upon conversations with voters and different trade insiders, evaluation of selling and awards campaigns, outcomes of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars, and the historical past of the Oscars itself. There shall be common updates to replicate new developments.
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Greatest Image
Frontrunners
1. Barbie (Warner Bros.)
2. Oppenheimer (Common)
3. Previous Lives (A24)
4. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple)
5. Poor Issues (Searchlight)
6. The Holdovers (Focus)
7. American Fiction (Amazon/MGM)
8. The Zone of Curiosity (A24)
9. Maestro (Netflix)
10. Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)
Main Threats
11. Society of the Snow (Netflix)
12. Could December (Netflix)
13. The Shade Purple (Warner Bros.)
14. Spider-Man: Throughout the Spider-Verse (Sony)
Potentialities
15. Saltburn (Amazon/MGM)
16. Air (Amazon/MGM)
17. Ferrari (Neon)
18. Origin (Neon)
Greatest Director
Frontrunners
1. Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
2. Greta Gerwig (Barbie) — podcast
3. Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
4. Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Curiosity)
5. Celine Tune (Previous Lives)
Main Threats
6. Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Issues)
7. Alexander Payne (The Holdovers)
8. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
9. Twine Jefferson (American Fiction)
10. Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
11. Todd Haynes (Could December) — podcast
Potentialities
12. J.A. Bayona (Society of the Snow)
13. Blitz Bazawule (The Shade Purple)
14. Hayao Miyazaki (The Boy and the Heron)
15. Emerald Fennell (Saltburn)
16. Michael Mann (Ferrari)
17. Ava DuVernay (Origin)
Greatest Actor
Frontrunners
1. Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) — podcast
2. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
3. Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
4. Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Main Threats
6. Colman Domingo (Rustin)
7. Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers)
8. Barry Keoghan (Saltburn)
9. Matt Damon (Air)
Potentialities
10. Nicolas Cage (Dream State of affairs) — podcast
11. Franz Rogowski (Passages)
12. Christian Friedel (The Zone of Curiosity)
13. Adam Driver (Ferrari) — podcast
Greatest Actress
Frontrunners
1. Emma Stone (Poor Issues) — podcast
2. Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
3. Margot Robbie (Barbie) — podcast
4. Carey Mulligan (Maestro) — podcast
5. Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)
Main Threats
6. Greta Lee (Previous Lives)
7. Annette Bening (Nyad)
8. Natalie Portman (Could December) — podcast
9. Helen Mirren (Golda) — podcast
Potentialities
10. Alma Pöysti (Fallen Leaves)
11. Fantasia Barrino (The Shade Purple)
12. Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla)
13. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Origin) — podcast
14. Jessica Chastain (Reminiscence) — podcast
Greatest Supporting Actor
Frontrunners
1. Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
2. Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
3. Mark Ruffalo (Poor Issues)
4. Willem Dafoe (Poor Issues) — podcast
5. Charles Melton (Could December)
Main Threats
6. Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon) — podcast
7. Sterling Okay. Brown (American Fiction) — podcast
8. Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)
9. Glenn Howerton (BlackBerry)
Potentialities
10. Jesse Plemons (Killers of the Flower Moon) — podcast
11. Jamie Bell (All of Us Strangers)
12. Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers)
13. Chris Messina (Air)
14. Peter Sarsgaard (Reminiscence)
Greatest Supporting Actress
Frontrunners
1. Da’Vine Pleasure Randolph (The Holdovers)
2. Danielle Brooks (The Shade Purple) — podcast
3. Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer) — podcast
4. Jodie Foster (Nyad) — podcast
5. Julianne Moore (Could December) — podcast
Main Threats
6. Rosamund Pike (Saltburn) — podcast
7. Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Curiosity)
8. America Ferrera (Barbie)
9. Erika Alexander (American Fiction)
Potentialities
10. Penélope Cruz (Ferrari) — podcast
11. Taraji P. Henson (The Shade Purple) — podcast
12. Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers) — podcast
13. Viola Davis (Air)
Greatest Tailored Screenplay
Frontrunners
1. Barbie (Noah Baumbach & Greta Gerwig) — podcast (Gerwig)
2. Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
3. Poor Issues (Tony McNamara)
4. Killers of the Flower Moon (Eric Roth & Martin Scorsese)
5. American Fiction (Twine Jefferson)
Main Threats
6. The Zone of Curiosity (Jonathan Glazer)
7. Spider-Man: Throughout the Spider-Verse (Dave Callaham, Phil Lord & Chris Miller)
8. Society of the Snow (J.A. Bayona, Nicolás Casariego, Jaime Marques & Bernat Vilaplana)
9. All of Us Strangers (Andrew Haigh)
Potentialities
10. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Kelly Fremon Craig)
11. Priscilla (Sofia Coppola)
12. The Shade Purple (Marcus Gardley)
13. Monster (Yuji Sakamoto)
Greatest Unique Screenplay
Frontrunners
1. Previous Lives (Celine Tune)
2. The Holdovers (David Hemingson)
3. Anatomy of a Fall (Arthur Harari & Justine Triet)
4. Maestro (Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer)
5. Could December (Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik)
Main Threats
6. Saltburn (Emerald Fennell)
7. Air (Alex Convery)
8. Rustin (Dustin Lance Black & Julian Breece)
Potentialities
9. Asteroid Metropolis (Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola)
10. Origin (Ava DuVernay)
11. Dream State of affairs (Kristoffer Borgli)
Greatest Worldwide Characteristic
Frontrunners
1. The Zone of Curiosity (United Kingdom)
2. Society of the Snow (Spain)
3. The Style of Issues (France)
4. 4 Daughters (Tunisia)
5. The Instructor’s Lounge (Germany)
Main Threats
6. Excellent Days (Japan)
7. 20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine)
Can’t But Name
Godland (Iceland)
Totem (Mexico)
Io Capitano (Italy)
Fallen Leaves (Finland)
The Promised Land (Denmark)
The Mom of All Lies (Morocco)
Amerikatsi (Armenia)
The Monk and the Gun (Bhutan)
Greatest Documentary Characteristic
Frontrunners
1. American Symphony (Netflix)
2. Nonetheless: A Michael J. Fox Film (Apple) — podcast (Davis Guggenheim)
3. Past Utopia (Roadside)
4. 20 Days in Mariupol (PBS)
5. 4 Daughters (Kino Lorber)
Main Threats
6. Stamped from the Starting (Netflix) — podcast (Roger Ross Williams)
7. The Everlasting Reminiscence (MTV)
8. Bobi Wine: The Folks’s President (Nat Geo)
9. To Kill a Tiger (nonetheless in search of U.S. distribution)
10. Determined Souls, Darkish Metropolis and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy (Kino Lorber/Zeitgeist)
Can’t But Name
32 Sounds (Abramorama)
Apolonia, Apolonia (nonetheless in search of U.S. distribution)
Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Venture (HBO)
Within the Rearview (Movie Motion)
A Nonetheless Small Voice (Abramorama)
Greatest Animated Characteristic
Frontrunners
1. Spider-Man: Throughout the Spider-Verse (Sony)
2. The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS)
3. Elemental (Pixar) — podcast (Pete Docter)
4. Nimona (Netflix)
5. The Tremendous Mario Bros. Film (Illumination)
Main Threats
6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (Paramount)
7. Hen Run: Daybreak of the Nugget (Netflix)
8. Leo (Netflix)
9. Want (Disney)
10. They Shot the Piano Participant (Sony Classics)
Can’t But Name
Superb Maurice (Viva)
Deep Sea (Viva)
Ernest & Celestine: A Journey to Gibbertia (GKIDS)
The First Slam Dunk (GKIDS)
Migration (Illumination)
Robotic Desires (Neon)
Stopmotion (IFC)
Suzume (Toho)
Trolls Band Collectively (DreamWorks)
Greatest Cinematography
Frontrunners
1. Oppenheimer (Hoyte van Hoytema)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Rodrigo Prieto)
3. Poor Issues (Robbie Ryan)
4. The Zone of Curiosity (Lukasz Zal)
5. Maestro (Matthew Libatique)
Main Threats
6. Barbie (Rodrigo Prieto)
7. Saltburn (Linus Sandgren)
8. The Shade Purple (Dan Laustsen)
9. Society of the Snow (Pedro Luque)
10. Ferrari (Erik Messerschmidt)
11. Napoleon (Dariusz Wolski)
Potentialities
12. Previous Lives (Shabier Kirchner)
13. Could December (Christopher Blauvelt)
14. The Style of Issues (Jonathan Ricquebourg)
15. The Holdovers (Eigil Byrid)
16. Air (Robert Richardson)
17. The Killer (Erik Messerschmidt)
Greatest Costume Design
Frontrunners
1. Barbie (Jacqueline Durran)
2. Poor Issues (Holly Waddington)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Jacqueline West)
4. The Shade Purple (Francine Jamison-Tanchuck)
5. Wonka (Lindy Hemming)
Main Threats
6. Napoleon (David Crossman & Janty Yates)
7. Maestro (Mark Bridges)
8. The Little Mermaid (Colleen Atwood)
9. Oppenheimer (Ellen Mirojnick)
10. Priscilla (Stacey Battat)
Potentialities
11. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Ann Roth)
12. Ferrari (Massimo Cantini Parrini)
13. Asteroid Metropolis (Milena Canonero)
14. Saltburn (Sophie Canale)
17. The Starvation Video games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes (Trish Summerville)
Greatest Movie Modifying
Frontrunners
1. Oppenheimer (Jennifer Lame)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Thelma Schoonmaker)
3. Poor Issues (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)
4. Barbie (Nick Houy)
5. The Holdovers (Kevin Tent)
Main Threats
6. Maestro (Michelle Tesoro)
7. Ferrari (Pietro Scalia)
8. The Killer (Kirk Baxter)
9. Spider-Man: Throughout the Spider-Verse (Michael Andrews)
10. Previous Lives (Keith Fraase)
Potentialities
11. Air (William Goldenberg)
12. American Fiction (Hilda Rasula)
13. The Zone of Curiosity (Paul Watts)
14. Mission: Inconceivable: Useless Reckoning Half One (Eddie Hamilton)
15. The Shade Purple (Jon Ballot)
Greatest Make-up & Hairstyling
Frontrunners
1. Maestro (Kay Georgiou, Sian Grigg, Kazu Hiro & Lori McCoy-Bell)
2. Poor Issues (Mark Couler, Nadia Stacey & Josh Weston)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Kay Georgiou & Thomas Nellen)
4. Golda (Suzi Battersby, Ashra Kelly-Blue & Karen Hartley Thomas)
5. Society of the Snow (Ana López-Puigcerver, Belén López-Puigcerver, David Martí & Montse Ribé)
Main Threats
6. Oppenheimer (Luisa Abel, Jason Hamer, Jaime Leigh McIntosh & Ahou Mofid)
7. Ferrari (Elisabetta Arlotti, Nicolas Iles, Feredrico Martellacci & Leonardo Signoretti)
8. Napoleon (Jana Carboni & Francesco Pegoretti)
9. Beau Is Afraid (Félix Larivière & Colin Penman)
10. The Final Voyage of the Demeter (TBD)
Greatest Unique Rating
Frontrunners
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Robbie Robertson)
2. Oppenheimer (Ludwig Göransson)
3. Spider-Man: Throughout the Spider-Verse (Daniel Pemberton)
4. Poor Issues (Jerskin Fendrix)
5. Barbie (Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt)
Main Threats
6. The Zone of Curiosity (Mica Levi)
7. The Holdovers (Mark Orton)
8. Elemental (Thomas Newman)
9. American Fiction (Laura Karpman)
10. Society of the Snow (Michael Giacchino)
Potentialities
11. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Future (John Williams)
12. American Symphony (Jon Batiste)
13. The Boy and the Heron (Joe Hisaishi)
14. The Shade Purple (Kris Bowers)
15. Saltburn (Anthony Willis)
Greatest Unique Tune
Frontrunners
1. “What Was I Made For?” (Barbie), Billie Eilish & Finneas — podcast
2. “I’m Simply Ken” (Barbie), Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt — podcast (Ronson)
3. “Highway to Freedom” (Rustin), Lenny Kravitz — podcast
4. “It By no means Went Away” (American Symphony), Jon Batiste & Dan Wilson
5. “The Fireplace Inside” (Flamin’ Scorching), Diane Warren — podcast
Main Threats
6. “Dance the Night time” (Barbie), Caroline Ailin, Dua Lipa, Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt — podcasts (Lipa & Ronson)
7. “Excessive Life” (Flora and Son), John Carney & Gary Clark
8. “Meet within the Center” from Flora and Son, John Carney, Gary Clark & Eve Hewson
9. “Hold It Movin’” (The Shade Purple), Denisia Andrews, Halle Bailey, Brittany Coney & Morten Ristorp
10. “Can’t Catch Me Now” (The Starvation Video games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes), Dan Nigro & Olivia Rodrigo — podcast (Rodrigo)
Potentialities
11. “Wahzhazhe (A Tune for My Folks)” from Killers of the Flower Moon, Scott George
12. “Quiet Eyes” (Previous Lives), Zach Dawes & Sharon Von Etten
13. “Am I Dreaming” (Spider-Man: Throughout the Spider-Verse), Michael Dean, Peter Lee Johnson, Rakim Mayers, Landon Wayne & Leland Wayne
14. “Superpower (I)” (The Shade Purple), Terius Gesteelde-Diamant
15. “Expensive Alien (Who Artwork in Heaven)” from Asteroid Metropolis, Wes Anderson & Jarvis Cocker
Greatest Manufacturing Design
Frontrunners
1. Barbie (Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer)
2. Oppenheimer (Ruth De Jong & Claire Kaufman)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Jack Fish & Adam Willis)
4. Poor Issues (Shona Heath, James Value & Szusza Mihalek)
5. Maestro (Rena DeAngelo & Kevin Thompson)
Main Threats
6. Saltburn (Suzie Davis & Charlotte Diricks)
7. Asteroid Metropolis (Kris Moran & Adam Stockhausen)
8. Wonka (Nathan Crowley & Lee Sandales)
9. The Shade Purple (Paul D. Austerberry & Larry Dias)
10. Napoleon (Elli Griff & Arthur Max)
11. Society of the Snow (Alain Bainée & Angela Nahum)
Possibilites
12. The Zone of Curiosity (Joanna Kus, Chris Oddy & Katarzyna Sikora)
13. Ferrari (Maria Djurkovic & Sophie Phillips)
14. Spider-Man: Throughout the Spider-Verse (Patrick O’Keefe)
15. Priscilla (Patricia Cuccia & Tamara Deverell)
16. Air (François Audouy & Jan Pascale)
17. Could December (Sam Lisenco & Jess Royal)
Greatest Sound
Frontrunners
1. Oppenheimer (Willie Burton, Richard King, Kevin O’Connell & Gary A. Rizzo)
2. Maestro (Richard King, Steve Morrow, Tom Ozanich, Jason Ruder & Dean Zupancic)
3. Ferrari (Tony Lamberti, Lee Orloff, Andy Nelson & Bernard Weiser)
4. Killers of the Flower Moon (John Pritchett, Philip Stockton & Mark Ulano)
5. Barbie (Dan Kenyon, Ai-Ling Lee, Kevin O’Connell & Nina Rice)
Main Threats
6. The Zone of Curiosity (Johnnie Burn)
7. Napoleon (Stephane Bucher, James Harrison, Paul Massey, William Miller & Oliver Tarney)
8. The Killer (Ren Klyce, Drew Kunin, Jeremy Molod & Stephen Urata)
9. The Creator (Erik Aadahl, Tom Ozanich, Ethan Van Der Ryn, Ian Voigt & Dean Zupancic)
10. Mission: Inconceivable — Useless Reckoning, Half One (Chris Burdon, James H. Mather & Chris Munro)
Greatest Visible Results
Frontrunners
1. Poor Issues
2. Society of the Snow
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
4. The Creator
5. Mission: Inconceivable — Useless Reckoning, Half One
Main Threats
6. Napoleon
7. Godzilla: Minus One
8. Spider-Man: Throughout the Spider-Verse
9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Future
10. Insurgent Moon: Half One — A Youngster of Fireplace
Greatest Animated Quick
Can’t But Name
27 (ARTE Mediathek)
Increase
Eeva (Miyu)
Humo (Smoke)
I’m Hip
A Type of Testomony
Koerkorter (Canine Residence)
Letter to a Pig (Miyu)
Ninety-5 Senses
As soon as Upon a Studio (Disney)
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
Pete (The Criterion Channel)
Conflict Is Over! Impressed by the Music of John & Yoko
Wild Summon
Greatest Documentary Quick
Frontrunners
1. The ABCs of Guide Banning (MTV) — podcast (Sheila Nevins)
2. Camp Braveness (Netflix)
3. Deciding Vote (The New Yorker)
4. The Barber of Little Rock (The New Yorker)
5. Final Tune from Kabul (MTV)
Main Threats
The Final Restore Store (L.A. Occasions/Searchlight)
Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó (Hulu)
Can’t But Name
Bear
Between Earth & Sky (POV)
Black Ladies Play: The Story of Hand Video games
How We Get Free
If Desires Had been Lightning: Rural Healthcare Disaster
Island in Between
Oasis (New York Occasions Op-Docs)
Wings of Mud (nonetheless in search of U.S. distribution)
Greatest Stay-Motion Quick
Frontrunners
1. The Great Story of Henry Sugar (Netflix)
2. Unusual Approach of Life (Sony Classics) — podcast (Pedro Almodóvar)
3. The After (Netflix) — podcast (David Oyelowo)
Can’t But Name
The Anne Frank Reward Store (Reboot)
An Avocado Pit
Bienvenidos a Los Angeles
Useless Cat
Good Boy
Invincible
Invisible Border
Knight of Fortune (The New Yorker)
The One Word Man
Purple, White and Blue
The Shepherd (Disney)
Yellow
