PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by Scott Feinberg, The Hollywood Reporter’s government editor of awards protection, displays Scott’s finest try and predict the habits of the Academy of Movement Image Arts and Sciences, not his private preferences. He arrives at these projections by drawing upon conversations with voters and different business insiders, evaluation of promoting and awards campaigns, outcomes of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars, and the historical past of the Oscars itself. There will probably be common updates to mirror new developments.
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Greatest Image
Frontrunners
1. Oppenheimer (Common)
2. Barbie (Warner Bros.)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple)
4. American Fiction (Amazon/MGM)
5. The Holdovers (Focus)
6. Poor Issues (Searchlight)
7. Maestro (Netflix)
8. Previous Lives (A24)
9. Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)
10. The Zone of Curiosity (A24)
Main Threats
11. Spider-Man: Throughout the Spider-Verse (Sony)
12. The Shade Purple (Warner Bros.)
13. Could December (Netflix)
14. Society of the Snow (Netflix)
15. The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS)
Prospects
16. Saltburn (Amazon/MGM)
17. Air (Amazon/MGM)
18. Ferrari (Neon)
19. All of Us Strangers (Searchlight)
20. Origin (Neon)
Greatest Director
Frontrunners
1. Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
2. Greta Gerwig (Barbie) — podcast
3. Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Issues)
5. Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Curiosity)
Main Threats
6. Alexander Payne (The Holdovers)
7. Wire Jefferson (American Fiction)
8. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
9. Celine Track (Previous Lives)
10. Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
11. J.A. Bayona (Society of the Snow)
Prospects
12. Todd Haynes (Could December) — podcast
13. Blitz Bazawule (The Shade Purple)
14. Hayao Miyazaki (The Boy and the Heron)
15. Emerald Fennell (Saltburn)
16. Michael Mann (Ferrari)
17. Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers)
18. Ava DuVernay (Origin)
Greatest Actor
Frontrunners
1. Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) — podcast
2. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
3. Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
4. Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Main Threats
6. Colman Domingo (Rustin)
7. Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers)
9. Barry Keoghan (Saltburn)
10. Matt Damon (Air)
Prospects
11. Nicolas Cage (Dream Situation) — podcast
12. Franz Rogowski (Passages)
13. Christian Friedel (The Zone of Curiosity)
14. Adam Driver (Ferrari) — podcast
Greatest Actress
Frontrunners
1. Emma Stone (Poor Issues) — podcast
2. Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
3. Margot Robbie (Barbie) — podcast
4. Carey Mulligan (Maestro) — podcast
5. Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)
Main Threats
6. Annette Bening (Nyad)
7. Greta Lee (Previous Lives)
8. Natalie Portman (Could December) — podcast
9. Fantasia Barrino (The Shade Purple)
10. Helen Mirren (Golda) — podcast
Prospects
11. Alma Pöysti (Fallen Leaves)
12. Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla)
13. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Origin) — podcast
14. Jessica Chastain (Reminiscence) — podcast
Greatest Supporting Actor
Frontrunners
1. Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
2. Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
3. Mark Ruffalo (Poor Issues)
4. Willem Dafoe (Poor Issues) — podcast
5. Charles Melton (Could December)
Main Threats
6. Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon) — podcast
7. Sterling Okay. Brown (American Fiction) — podcast
8. Jesse Plemons (Killers of the Flower Moon) — podcast
9. Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)
Prospects
10. Jamie Bell (All of Us Strangers)
11. Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers)
12. Chris Messina (Air)
13. Peter Sarsgaard (Reminiscence)
14. Glenn Howerton (BlackBerry)
Greatest Supporting Actress
Frontrunners
1. Da’Vine Pleasure Randolph (The Holdovers)
2. Danielle Brooks (The Shade Purple)
3. Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer) — podcast
4. Jodie Foster (Nyad) — podcast
5. Julianne Moore (Could December) — podcast
Main Threats
6. Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Curiosity)
7. Rosamund Pike (Saltburn) — podcast
8. America Ferrera (Barbie)
9. Erika Alexander (American Fiction)
Prospects
10. Penélope Cruz (Ferrari) — podcast
11. Taraji P. Henson (The Shade Purple) — podcast
12. Viola Davis (Air)
13. Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers) — podcast
Greatest Tailored Screenplay
Frontrunners
1. Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
2. Poor Issues (Tony McNamara)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Eric Roth & Martin Scorsese)
4. American Fiction (Wire Jefferson)
5. The Zone of Curiosity (Jonathan Glazer)
Main Threats
6. Spider-Man: Throughout the Spider-Verse (Dave Callaham, Phil Lord & Chris Miller)
7. Society of the Snow (J.A. Bayona, Nicolás Casariego, Jaime Marques & Bernat Vilaplana)
8. All of Us Strangers (Andrew Haigh)
9. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Kelly Fremon Craig)
Prospects
10. The Shade Purple (Marcus Gardley)
11. Priscilla (Sofia Coppola)
12. Monster (Yiju Sakamoto)
Greatest Authentic Screenplay
Frontrunners
1. Barbie (Noah Baumbach & Greta Gerwig) — podcast (Gerwig)
2. Previous Lives (Celine Track)
3. The Holdovers (David Hemingson)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (Arthur Harari & Justine Triet)
5. Maestro (Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer)
Main Threats
6. Could December (Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik)
7. Saltburn (Emerald Fennell)
8. Air (Alex Convery)
Prospects
9. Asteroid Metropolis (Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola)
10. Rustin (Dustin Lance Black & Julian Breece)
11. Origin (Ava DuVernay)
12. Dream Situation (Kristoffer Borgli)
Greatest Worldwide Function
Frontrunners
1. The Zone of Curiosity (United Kingdom)
2. Society of the Snow (Spain)
3. The Style of Issues (France)
4. 4 Daughters (Tunisia)
5. The Trainer’s Lounge (Germany)
Main Threats
6. Excellent Days (Japan)
7. 20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine)
Can’t But Name
Godland (Iceland)
Totem (Mexico)
Io Capitano (Italy)
Fallen Leaves (Finland)
The Promised Land (Denmark)
The Mom of All Lies (Morocco)
Amerikatsi (Armenia)
The Monk and the Gun (Bhutan)
Greatest Documentary Function
Frontrunners
1. American Symphony (Netflix)
2. Nonetheless: A Michael J. Fox Film (Apple) — podcast (Davis Guggenheim)
3. Past Utopia (Roadside)
4. 20 Days in Mariupol (PBS)
5. 4 Daughters (Kino Lorber)
Main Threats
6. Bobi Wine: The Individuals’s President (Nat Geo)
7. The Everlasting Reminiscence (MTV)
8. Stamped from the Starting (Netflix) — podcast (Roger Ross Williams)
9. To Kill a Tiger (nonetheless in search of U.S. distribution)
Can’t But Name
32 Sounds (Abramorama)
Apolonia, Apolonia (nonetheless in search of U.S. distribution)
Determined Souls, Darkish Metropolis and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy (Kino Lorber/Zeitgeist)
Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Venture (HBO)
Within the Rearview (Movie Motion)
A Nonetheless Small Voice (Abramorama)
Greatest Animated Function
Frontrunners
1. Spider-Man: Throughout the Spider-Verse (Sony)
2. The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS)
3. Elemental (Pixar) — podcast (Pete Docter)
4. Nimona (Netflix)
5. The Tremendous Mario Bros. Film (Illumination)
Main Threats
6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (Paramount)
7. Rooster Run: Daybreak of the Nugget (Netflix)
8. Leo (Netflix)
9. Want (Disney)
10. They Shot the Piano Participant (Sony Classics)
Can’t But Name
Wonderful Maurice (Viva)
Deep Sea (Viva)
Ernest & Celestine: A Journey to Gibbertia (GKIDS)
The First Slam Dunk (GKIDS)
Migration (Illumination)
Robotic Goals (Neon)
Stopmotion (IFC)
Suzume (Toho)
Trolls Band Collectively (DreamWorks)
Greatest Cinematography
Frontrunners
1. Oppenheimer (Hoyte van Hoytema)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Rodrigo Prieto)
3. Poor Issues (Robbie Ryan)
4. Barbie (Rodrigo Prieto)
5. Maestro (Matthew Libatique)
Main Threats
6. Saltburn (Linus Sandgren)
7. The Zone of Curiosity (Łukasz Żal)
8. The Shade Purple (Dan Laustsen)
9. Society of the Snow (Pedro Luque)
10. Ferrari (Erik Messerschmidt)
11. Napoleon (Dariusz Wolski)
12. Previous Lives (Shabier Kirchner)
Prospects
13. Could December (Christopher Blauvelt)
14. The Style of Issues (Jonathan Ricquebourg)
15. The Holdovers (Eigil Byrid)
16. All of Us Strangers (Jamie D. Ramsay)
17. Air (Robert Richardson)
18. The Killer (Erik Messerschmidt)
19. El Conde (Ed Lachman)
Greatest Costume Design
Frontrunners
1. Barbie (Jacqueline Durran)
2. Poor Issues (Holly Waddington)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Jacqueline West)
4. The Shade Purple (Francine Jamison-Tanchuck)
5. Wonka (Lindy Hemming)
Main Threats
6. Napoleon (David Crossman & Janty Yates)
7. Priscilla (Stacey Battat)
8. Maestro (Mark Bridges)
9. Oppenheimer (Ellen Mirojnick)
10. The Little Mermaid (Colleen Atwood)
11. Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret (Ann Roth)
Prospects
12. Ferrari (Massimo Cantini Parrini)
13. Asteroid Metropolis (Milena Canonero)
14. Saltburn (Sophie Canale)
15. Rustin (Toni-Leslie James)
16. Cassandro (María Estela Fernández)
17. The Starvation Video games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (Trish Summerville)
Greatest Fim Modifying
Frontrunners
1. Oppenheimer (Jennifer Lame)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Thelma Schoonmaker)
3. Poor Issues (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)
4. Barbie (Nick Houy)
5. Maestro (Michelle Tesoro)
Main Threats
6. Air (William Goldenberg)
7. Ferrari (Pietro Scalia)
8. American Fiction (Hilda Rasula)
9. Previous Lives (Keith Fraase)
10. The Holdovers (Kevin Tent)
11. The Zone of Curiosity (Paul Watts)
Prospects
12. Spider-Man: Throughout the Spider-Verse (Michael Andrews)
13. Mission: Unimaginable: Lifeless Reckoning Half One (Eddie Hamilton)
14. The Shade Purple (Jon Ballot)
15. Could December (Affonso Gonçalves)
16. Origin (Spencer Averick)
17. The Killer (Kirk Baxter)
Greatest Make-up & Hairstyling
Frontrunners
1. Maestro (Kay Georgiou, Sian Grigg, Kazu Hiro & Lori McCoy-Bell)
2. Poor Issues (Mark Couler, Nadia Stacey & Josh Weston)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Kay Georgiou & Thomas Nellen)
4. Golda (Karen Hartley Thomas)
5. Society of the Snow (Ana López-Puigcerver, Belén López-Puigcerver, David Martí & Montse Ribé)
Main Threats
6. Oppenheimer (Luisa Abel, Jason Hamer, Jaime Leigh McIntosh & Ahou Mofid)
7. Ferrari (Elisabetta Arlotti, Nicolas Iles, Feredrico Martellacci & Leonardo Signoretti)
8. Napoleon (Jana Carboni & Francesco Pegoretti)
9. Beau Is Afraid (Félix Larivière & Colin Penman)
10. The Final Voyage of the Demeter (TBD)
Greatest Authentic Rating
Frontrunners
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Robbie Robertson)
2. Oppenheimer (Ludwig Göransson)
3. Spider-Man: Throughout the Spider-Verse (Daniel Pemberton)
4. Poor Issues (Jerskin Fendrix)
5. Barbie (Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt)
Main Threats
6. The Zone of Curiosity (Mica Levi)
7. The Boy and the Heron (Joe Hisaishi)
8. Elemental (Thomas Newman)
9. American Fiction (Laura Karpman)
10. Society of the Snow (Michael Giacchino)
Prospects
11. The Shade Purple (Kris Bowers)
12. Saltburn (Anthony Willis)
13. The Holdovers (Mark Orton)
14. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Future (John Williams)
15. American Symphony (Jon Batiste)
Greatest Authentic Track
Frontrunners
1. “What Was I Made For?” (Barbie), Billie Eilish & Finneas — podcast
2. “I’m Simply Ken” (Barbie), Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt — podcast (Ronson)
3. “It By no means Went Away” (American Symphony), Jon Batiste & Dan Wilson
4. “Street to Freedom” (Rustin), Lenny Kravitz — podcast
5. “The Hearth Inside” (Flamin’ Scorching), Diane Warren — podcast
Main Threats
6. “Dance the Evening” (Barbie), Caroline Ailin, Dua Lipa, Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt — podcasts (Lipa & Ronson)
7. “Excessive Life” (Flora and Son), John Carney & Gary Clark
8. “Meet In The Center” from Flora and Son, John Carney, Gary Clark & Eve Hewson
9. “Preserve It Movin’” (The Shade Purple), Denisia Andrews, Halle Bailey, Brittany Coney & Morten Ristorp
10. “Can’t Catch Me Now” (The Starvation Video games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes), Dan Nigro & Olivia Rodrigo — podcast (Rodrigo)
Prospects
11. “Wahzhazhe (A Track For My Individuals)” from Killers of the Flower Moon, Scott George
12. “Quiet Eyes” (Previous Lives), Zach Dawes & Sharon Von Etten
13. “Am I Dreaming” (Spider-Man: Throughout the Spider-Verse), Michael Dean, Peter Lee Johnson, Rakim Mayers, Landon Wayne & Leland Wayne
14. “Superpower (I)” (The Shade Purple), Terius Gesteelde-Diamant
15. “Expensive Alien (Who Artwork In Heaven)” from Asteroid Metropolis, Wes Anderson & Jarvis Cocker
Greatest Manufacturing Design
Frontrunners
1. Barbie (Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer)
2. Oppenheimer (Ruth De Jong & Claire Kaufman)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Jack Fish & Adam Willis)
4. Poor Issues (Shona Heath, James Value & Szusza Mihalek)
5. Maestro (Rena DeAngelo & Kevin Thompson)
Main Threats
6. Saltburn (Suzie Davis & Charlotte Diricks)
7. Asteroid Metropolis (Kris Moran & Adam Stockhausen)
8. Wonka (Nathan Crowley & Lee Sandales)
9. The Shade Purple (Paul D. Austerberry & Larry Dias)
10. Napoleon (Elli Griff & Arthur Max)
11. Ferrari (Maria Djurkovic & Sophie Phillips)
12. Society of the Snow (Alain Bainée & Angela Nahum)
Possibilites
13. The Zone of Curiosity (Joanna Kus, Chris Oddy & Katarzyna Sikora)
14. The Style of Issues (Toma Baqueni)
15. Anatomy of a Fall (Cécile Deleu & Emmanuelle Duplay)
16. Priscilla (Patricia Cuccia & Tamara Deverell)
17. Air (François Audouy & Jan Pascale)
18. Could December (Sam Lisenco & Jess Royal)
19. Spider-Man: Throughout the Spider-Verse (Patrick O’Keefe)
Greatest Sound
Frontrunners
1. Oppenheimer (Willie Burton, Richard King, Kevin O’Connell & Gary A. Rizzo)
2. Maestro (Richard King, Steve Morrow, Tom Ozanich, Jason Ruder & Dean Zupancic)
3. Ferrari (Tony Lamberti, Lee Orloff, Andy Nelson & Bernard Weiser)
4. Killers of the Flower Moon (John Pritchett, Philip Stockton & Mark Ulano)
5. Barbie (Dan Kenyon, Ai-Ling Lee, Kevin O’Connell & Nina Rice)
Main Threats
6. The Zone of Curiosity (Johnnie Burn)
7. Napoleon (Stephane Bucher, James Harrison, Paul Massey, William Miller & Oliver Tarney)
8. The Killer (Ren Klyce, Drew Kunin, Jeremy Molod & Stephen Urata)
9. The Creator (Erik Aadahl, Tom Ozanich, Ethan Van Der Ryn, Ian Voigt & Dean Zupancic)
10. Mission: Unimaginable — Lifeless Reckoning Half One (Chris Burdon, James H. Mather & Chris Munro)
Greatest Visible Results
Frontrunners
1. Poor Issues
2. Society of the Snow
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
4. The Creator
5. Mission: Unimaginable — Lifeless Reckoning Half One
Main Threats
6. Napoleon
7. Godzilla: Minus One
8. Spider-Man: Throughout the Spider-Verse
9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Future
10. Insurgent Moon: Half One — A Baby of Hearth
Greatest Animated Brief
Can’t But Name
27 (ARTE Mediathek)
Growth
Eeva (Miyu)
Humo (Smoke)
I’m Hip
A Type of Testomony
Koerkorter (Canine Condominium)
Letter to a Pig (Miyu)
Ninety-5 Senses
As soon as Upon a Studio (Disney)
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
Pete (The Criterion Channel)
Conflict Is Over! Impressed by the Music of John & Yoko
Wild Summon
Greatest Documentary Brief
Frontrunners
1. The ABCs of Ebook Banning (MTV) — podcast (Sheila Nevins)
2. Camp Braveness (Netflix)
3. Deciding Vote (The New Yorker)
4. The Barber of Little Rock (The New Yorker)
5. Final Track from Kabul (MTV)
Main Threats
The Final Restore Store (LA Occasions/Searchlight)
Can’t But Name
Bear
Between Earth & Sky (POV)
Black Women Play: The Story of Hand Video games
How We Get Free
If Goals Had been Lightning: Rural Healthcare Disaster
Island in Between
Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó
Oasis (New York Occasions Op-Docs)
Wings of Mud (nonetheless in search of U.S. distribution)
Greatest Dwell Motion Brief
Frontrunners
1. The Fantastic Story of Henry Sugar (Netflix)
2. Unusual Manner of Life (Sony Classics) — podcast (Pedro Almodóvar)
3. The After (Netflix) — podcast (David Oyelowo)
Can’t But Name
The Anne Frank Reward Store (Reboot)
An Avocado Pit
Bienvenidos a Los Angeles
Lifeless Cat
Good Boy
Invincible
Invisible Border
Knight of Fortune (nonetheless in search of U.S. distribution)
The One Observe Man
Crimson, White and Blue
The Shepherd (Disney)
Yellow
